Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
